NEWS ANALYSIS: NThe shake-up in Jonathan Presidency

News By Nigerian Tribune


The purported resignation of the Chief of Staff to President Goodluck Jonathan, Chief Mike Oghiadomhe, came as a rude shock to many. OLAWALE RASHEED writes on the implications of the development in the Presidency.


Pre-election year in Nigeria has raised the stake in the competition for state power and contenders at all levels are re-arming and realigning for advantages. For President Goodluck Jonathan, the stake is not only high, but also that the number one citizen, arguably the most powerful president in sub-Saharan Africa, is in a war mood with more heads likely to roll in few weeks.


The last few months have put the administration on the defensive with the opposition on relentless offensive. The attacks had rattled the ruling party and almost diverted the attention of the incumbent from his governance agenda. Many analysts had openly sided with the opposition, especially at a time allegations of mismanagement of various sorts were popping out from the executive arm of government. A major point of attacks was the perceived reluctance of the president to rein in appointed officials considered to be allegedly neck-deep in such public vices.


In some quarters, the president was adjudged as weak and incapable of sanctioning and punishing his aides and his appointees. The opposition feasted wildly on such perceived lapses and even the best of political pundits had written off the incumbent, especially if he opted to re-contest the presidency. The judgment was extended to the ruling party structure with the president accused of acting so late in tackling the leadership crisis that occasioned the mass defection of many Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chieftains.


The events of 2014 have, however, raised several issues about whether some analysts had correctly read and defined the president. The perception of a leader as a weakling widely held in public domain is now widely challenged by recent actions of the president. From the choice of cabinet members to the recent removal of the all-powerful Chief of Staff, the president may have confirmed the perception of some presidential historians that rather than being weak and indecisive, the president is, indeed, a true student of his former bosses, such as former Bayelsa State governor, Dieprieye Alamiyeseigha; former President Olusegun Obasanjo and late President UmaruYar’Adua.


Insiders had, indeed, identified four major planks of the president’ style of governance which his critics regularly widely labeled as weakness. The first includes a refusal to be stampeded by induced hysteria about a public official or government policies. This has, to a large extent, sustained an administration that would have been swept away by hasty reactions, especially to an orchestrated outcry. By being slow to act, insiders believe the president avoids acting in error as well as the possibility of falling into any political trap designed by his enemies.


The second plank identified includes refusal to openly deploy the enormity of state power when tackling opponents. Many analysts had asked why the president allowed himself to be harassed by the opposition on a daily basis without applying the many options made available by the power of his office. The approach, however, appears to have confounded the opposition more, as a power not applied retains its potency the more, especially in the invidious politics of the nation. Checks showed that by showing the power without actually applying it, the incumbent succeeded in running his enemies out of steam, retaining the upper hand in the continued duel.

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The third plan, according to the Nigerian Tribune checks, is the capacity of the president to strategically disengage aides who have become political liabilities and to tactically engage hands with identified strengths in areas of weaknesses of the administration. More than any other thing, this aspect of the president’s style is adjudged the most dangerous and, so far, the most effective. With blank, hard-to-read mien, the number one citizen had surprised former leaders who rated themselves as masters of statecraft.


The last of the approach is the sustained depiction of ordinariness as occupant of the State House. What seems to annoy some critics is that the Otuoke, Bayelsa State-born politician is too ordinary and does not carry the aura of the most powerful man in sub-Sahara Africa. That perception is deliberately reinforced by the president, who also acts and speaks as though he is not the Commander-In-Chief. Insiders noted that the president is conscious of this perception and regards it as a plus, rather than weakness, especially being in a democracy.


The preceding, when situated against the background of recent pronouncements, indicated that this is a season of changes which may affect more figures than those already announced. The depth of the re-organisation coming within the Jonathan presidency is reported to be unprecedented. The groundbreaking reforms have commenced with the exit of Chief Mike Oghiadome, a close ally of the president for many years and a man known to be the president’s man Friday within the power circle.


Beyond security reforms, a huge shake-up is also expected within the Federal Executive Council (FEC). Aside the 12 ministerial nominees now screened, reports indicated that 10 more names may soon be forwarded to the Senate. This is based on reports that many key members of the cabinet are expected to quit their office to pursue governorship aspirations. This implies that about 22 members of the cabinet are new, leading to suggestions that the president is already putting in place a second term cabinet.


Already, Minister for Aviation, Mrs Stella Oduah; her colleagues in Police Affairs, Niger Delta Affairs and Finance (State), Caleb Olubolade, Godsday Orubebe and yerima Ngama, respectively have been relieved of their positions.


Reports that the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator Anyim Pius Anyim, is to go has been denied in high quarters. What is not clear s why the rumour originated in the first place. There are also reports that the Political Adviser to the President, Ahmed Gulak, may be replaced by a former Kano State governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, who recently defected, to the party. Findings revealed that Gulak would be sacrificed in line with the ongoing rejuvenation of the political machine of the president.


Within the establishment, Oghiadome’s exit signaled three things. First is that there is no untouchable within the administration. As a friend within put it, Oghiadome is probably untouchable number one and his exit implies that the president wants other untouchables to be prepared to make sacrifices in the interest of the administration. The resignation of the Chief of Staff indicated that more heads may roll, as many analysts were not expecting it.


The second signal is a confirmation of the president’s readiness to make adjustments in many areas of his governments, in response to genuine and otherwise criticisms of his conduct in office. As the administration is not without its faults, the adjustment with the exit of the leading personal aide is the beginning of more review of appointments in due course.


And more critical is the firming up of the heart of the administration which is the office of the Chief of Staff. As the final desk before presidential desk, the office of Chief of Staff can be rightly or wrongly blamed for lapses in presidential conduct. A change in that office now points to a change of tactics, a desire to improve efficiency of the clearing desk and a push to increase the vibrancy of the presidential office.


Analysts have speculated a lot on areas of expected changes. The first is in the area of national security .First, the president needs an active member of the power cabal now that he is at ‘war’. A president facing open opposition from establshed political camps tactically needs a General Aliyu Gusau on his side.


Secondly, the president may be working towards strategic communications with the core North. The efforts of Vice-President Namadi Sambo and other allies of the president in the zone appear to demand reinforcement to change the balance of viewpoints in the region. A Gusau is not likely to share the agenda of a Muhammadu Buhari or an Ibrahim Babangida due to historical power feuds. With a clear vacuum in the core North on the president’s side, the former National Security Adviser (NSA) can fill the gap and open many doors already shut against the president in Arewa heartland.


More importantly, the president may have taken some perspectives already spelt out. The security situation in the country is scary. The Boko Haram menace, oil theft in the South-South, kidnapping in the South-East and armed robbery in the South-West, all probably excite an holistic reasoning in the presidency. Having raised the level of hi-tech application in the security services, drafting the old master into the field is a smart way of tackling the security scare, especially in the run off to the 2015 polls.


Keen watchers of security power play are reading the return of taciturn Lieutenant-General Gusau (rtd) from three perspectives and context. The first is the doomsday predictions that Nigeria may disintegrate in 2015. The surging level of insecurity across the zones, coupled with open threats of bloodshed ahead of 2015, had forced many to believe there may, indeed, be a script towards the actualisation of that prediction. Bringing on board a security czar deeply entrenched in the making of the nation’s security apparatus is an appropriate response to that threat.


The second context has to do with the internal split within the nation’s power elite, especially on the status of the incumbent president. The apparent opposition to the re-election of the president by some former presidents and their open daring of the Commander-In -Chief may have necessitated the drafting of a stabiliser who was a leading player in key phases of the nation’s history. His coming can be a containment opportunity or a re-integrative window for the nation’s power cabal to respect the sanctity of the presidency and accept the incumbent as one of them.


A key angle is the current politics of the Northern region. The longest-serving NSA occupies a pivotal position in the core North. As an old time player with hands and eye in major power centres of the Arewa nation, his coming on board at this crucial stage has the capacity to redirect the core North, restore its integrity and provide the region a lifeline in a Nigeria that it  has become encircled. The North of old, whose voice ruled the nation, is now divided into so many Lilliputian caucuses. Gusau is considered as capable of uniting a disparate core North, saving the region, especially in the ongoing battle for the presidency.


If there is anything to note, it is that this president s now on the offensive and in war mood ahead of the February 2015 presidential election.